What the six columns measure
Formal authority
The constitutional and command weight of the most senior post held.
From a published, editable weight table. An editorial judgement, openly stated.
Proximity to the executive
How few institutional steps separate this person from the presidency.
Computed: shortest path to the presidency node over documented edges only.
Tenure and survival
Years in senior post, weighted by how many regime ruptures were survived in office.
Computed purely from position intervals. The most defensible index here.
Brokerage
How much this person connects parts of the network that would otherwise be separate.
Computed: normalised betweenness centrality. Surfaces intermediaries over headline names.
Cross-layer reach
How many of the analytical layers — security, political, economic, media, judicial, civil society, foreign — the person operates in.
Computed from layer membership, as a share of the layers currently enabled. Narrowing the layer filter changes the denominator.
Evidenced influence
How many evidenced routes of influence connect to this person, weighted by strength and basis.
Computed from documented influence edges in the graph. Reads: how many evidenced routes. Not a judgement of who truly runs the country.
| # | Person | Most senior post held | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3L | President of the Republic | 100 | 100 | 100 | 64 | 43 | 0 | 68 |
| 2 | 2L | Head of Government | 70 | 72 | 92 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 44 |
| 3 | 3L | Minister of Foreign Affairs | 50 | 72 | 100 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 44 |
| 4 | 2L | Director-General of Military Security | 66 | 44 | 100 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 40 |
| 5 | Minister of Education | 45 | 72 | 100 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 38 | |
| 6 | Speaker of Parliament | 55 | 44 | 100 | 16 | 14 | 0 | 38 | |
| 7 | Minister of Communication Technologies | 35 | 72 | 100 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 38 | |
| 8 | 2L | Minister of the Interior | 75 | 72 | 48 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Minister of Communication | 40 | 72 | 97 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 37 | |
| 10 | Minister of Transport | 35 | 72 | 100 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 37 | |
| 11 | Director-General of Presidential Security | 52 | 72 | 76 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 37 | |
| 12 | Chairman, Poulina Group Holding | 30 | 72 | 100 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 37 | |
| 13 | 2L | Minister of Finance | 45 | 44 | 95 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 35 |
| 14 | Governor of Mahdia | 30 | 72 | 91 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 35 | |
| 15 | Member of the Chamber of Deputies (12th legislature) | 20 | 44 | 100 | 25 | 14 | 0 | 34 | |
| 16 | Minister of Social Affairs | 40 | 72 | 38 | 27 | 14 | 0 | 32 | |
| 17 | Principal, Mabrouk Group | 30 | 44 | 100 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 32 | |
| 18 | Chief of Staff of the Navy | 55 | 16 | 100 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 31 | |
| 19 | Minister of Social Affairs | 40 | 72 | 57 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 31 | |
| 20 | Minister of Economy and Planning | 45 | 72 | 52 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 31 | |
| 21 | Member of the Chamber of Deputies (12th legislature) | 20 | 44 | 100 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 30 | |
| 22 | Member of the Chamber of Deputies (12th legislature) | 20 | 44 | 100 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 30 | |
| 23 | Member of the Chamber of Deputies (12th legislature) | 20 | 44 | 100 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 30 | |
| 24 | Member of the Chamber of Deputies (12th legislature) | 20 | 44 | 100 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 30 | |
| 25 | Member of the Chamber of Deputies (12th legislature) | 20 | 44 | 100 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 30 | |
| 26 | President of Ennahda | 45 | 16 | 100 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 29 | |
| 27 | Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research | 40 | 72 | 48 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 29 | |
| 28 | Member of the Chamber of Deputies (12th legislature) | 20 | 44 | 92 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 28 | |
| 29 | Governor of Ben Arous | 30 | 72 | 52 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 28 | |
| 30 | 2L | President of UTICA | 45 | 0 | 94 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 28 |
| 31 | 3L | Owner, Nessma TV | 24 | 0 | 100 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 28 |
| 32 | Minister of Development and Regional Planning | 40 | 72 | 39 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 28 | |
| 33 | 2L | Leader of the Progressive Democratic Party | 32 | 0 | 100 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 27 |
| 34 | Minister of Justice | 42 | 72 | 32 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 27 | |
| 35 | Governor of Bizerte | 30 | 72 | 42 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 26 | |
| 36 | 2L | Owner of Mosaique FM | 30 | 0 | 100 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 26 |
| 37 | Governor of Tunis | 30 | 72 | 42 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 26 | |
| 38 | Minister of Health | 38 | 44 | 61 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 26 | |
| 39 | 2L | Chief of Staff of the Land Army | 60 | 16 | 52 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 26 |
| 40 | Governor of Nabeul | 30 | 72 | 40 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 26 |
This is a ranking of structural position, not of who secretly runs the country. A high brokerage score means the dataset records this person connecting otherwise separate networks; it is not evidence of wrongdoing, coordination, or hidden control. Select a row to see exactly which records produced each number.
How the rankings depend on assumptions
The six indices barely move when the two temporal assumptions are perturbed (8-year window halved/doubled, ~slack ±50%: worst Spearman ≥0.997) or when the three influence weights are shifted ±0.25 (worst 0.997 — only five people score on influence today; near-zero deltas are the sparsity finding, not hidden robustness). The combined score is sensitive to the reader’s weighting: excluding survival drops it to 0.772 (47.5% top-40 overlap) and authority to 0.782, while brokerage and influence barely register (0.969 and 0.995). The full ranking-delta table with Spearman, overlap and top-10 swaps is published with every build.
sensitivity.json · full table: output/sensitivity/README.md · data: sensitivity.json